The Quiet Revolution on Wheels

Archive edition · Market data and company circumstances reflect 9 May 2026, when this newsletter was sent.

The $415 Billion Opportunity

Imagine an industry that barely exists today, but in 10 years could be worth more than Saudi Arabia's entire economy. That's robotaxis.

Goldman Sachs just dropped a forecast that should grab every investor's attention: The global Robotaxi market is heading to $415 billion by 2035. To put that in perspective, there are roughly 7,000 self-driving taxis on the road today. By 2035? Try 6 million. That is not growth, that is an explosion.

And it is not just taxis. The entire autonomous vehicle ecosystem (cars, trucks, software, services) could hit a $2 trillion by 2035.

How Robotaxis Will Print Money

Companies that build and operate their own robotaxi fleets could enjoy gross margins of 30-50%. For comparison, that's better than most software companies.

Why? Because the cost of running a robotaxi is plummeting fast:

By 2035, running a robotaxi could cost less than $1 per mile. Cumulative profits across the industry over the next decade? $440 billion.

• No driver salary (the biggest cost in any taxi business is gone)
• Cars getting cheaper to depreciate ($0.35/mile today → $0.14/mile in 2035)
• One human can supervise 26 cars by 2035 (versus just 6 today)

The Real Autonomy Play

Everyone's obsessed with Tesla's robotaxi dream. But the smart money is quietly piling into something else: Autonomous Trucks.

Here's why it's actually the better near-term bet:

The math is brutal for traditional trucking. AV truck costs are crashing from $8.56/mile today to $2.03 by 2035, while human-driven trucks are getting more expensive due to rising wages.

There's another goldmine hiding here: Software Subscriptions. The "Netflix for your car" market, where you pay monthly for self-driving features, could be worth $300 billion by 2035.

• Bigger market: $560 billion globally by 2035 (larger than robotaxis)
• Profitable sooner: AV trucks become cheaper than human-driven trucks in 2028—just 2 years away
• They never sleep: Unlike human drivers limited to 11 hours per day, AV trucks can run 24/7

Stocks Investors Are Watching

You don't need to bet on a single winner. Here's how to play this across the value chain:

The Picks-and-Shovels Plays

• Alphabet (GOOGL) – Waymo is the clear leader, already running real robotaxi services
• Tesla (TSLA) – Massive data advantage from millions of cars on the road
• NVIDIA (NVDA) – Powers the brains behind nearly every AV program
• General Motors (GM) – Cruise robotaxis + Super Cruise driver assist
• Ford (F) – BlueCruise hands-free driving tech
• Mobileye (MBLY) – Supplies AV tech to 50+ automakers
• Luminar (LAZR) – LiDAR sensors (the "eyes" of self-driving cars)
• Qualcomm (QCOM) – Chips powering connected vehicles
• Aurora Innovation (AUR) – Founded by AV legends from Google, Uber, Tesla
• TuSimple (TSP) – Operations across U.S. and China

Key Risks

Here's what could derail the trillion-dollar dream:

How to Play It Smart: Don't put everything on one stock. Spread your bets across (1) fleet operators, (2) software/AI providers, (3) trucking pure-plays, and (4) sensor/chip suppliers. Think of it like investing in the entire gold rush not just betting on one prospector.

• Regulators could slam the brakes – Self-driving rules differ wildly across countries and states
• The tech might disappoint – Going from "kinda works" to "perfect" is incredibly hard
• It costs a fortune – Building this stuff burns billions before profits arrive
• People might say no – Would you trust a car with no driver? Many wouldn't
• Interest rates matter – Long-term bets get hammered when rates rise

Archive note

This article preserves the analysis in our weekly newsletter sent 9 May 2026. Market prices, forecasts and company circumstances reflect the time of publication and may have changed.

This material is general information, not personal financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Investing and trading involve risk, including loss of capital.