Seven principles
Fixed
The same seven for every stock, every horizon and every market condition. They decide what qualifies, what risk is acceptable and what is recorded.
Principles and methodologies
A principle decides what. A methodology decides how.
Stocks
Three methodologies
Chosen per position
Tactical, momentum and turn-around. The intended holding period selects one of them, and that choice decides how the principles are applied.
From thesis to follow-through
Seven principles, in the order they apply.
Thesis
Before anything is bought
Whether the opportunity deserves a position at all, and on what evidence.
Entry
At the entry
What is actually committed, at what price, and what would invalidate it.
Hold & exit
While it is held
What happens to the position as the evidence moves.
Thesis
Before anything is bought
Whether the opportunity deserves a position at all, and on what evidence.
01Start with risk and return together
02Let the time horizon shape the method
03Use evidence, not camps
Entry
At the entry
What is actually committed, at what price, and what would invalidate it.
04Treat timing as a range, not a prediction
05Size the position before taking it
Hold & exit
While it is held
What happens to the position as the evidence moves.
06A stop is one tool, not the whole plan
07Manage the position as evidence changes
Thesis
01Start with risk and return together
Define the objective, the acceptable loss and the return needed to justify the risk.
Risk only has meaning in relation to an objective, a time horizon and an expected return. Before recommending a position, we consider what can be lost, what would justify taking that risk and how the position fits the intended exposure. The goal is not to eliminate volatility, but to take risk deliberately.
02Let the time horizon shape the method
Judge every opportunity using evidence that matches the intended holding period.
A short-term trade and a long-term investment should not be judged by the same signals. Price action, liquidity and trade management carry more weight over shorter horizons. Business quality, valuation and fundamental durability become more important as the horizon lengthens.
03Use evidence, not camps
Combine fundamental, technical and quantitative evidence instead of defending one label.
We do not treat fundamental and technical analysis as rival belief systems. Fundamentals help us assess whether an opportunity deserves attention. Technical and quantitative evidence help frame trend, volatility, timing, entries and exits. The mix changes with the instrument and the time horizon.
Entry
04Treat timing as a range, not a prediction
Define actionable zones and invalidation levels without pretending to know the exact turning point.
Every entry and exit involves timing, but precision is not certainty. We define actionable price ranges, the conditions that would invalidate the thesis and the evidence that would support staying with it. This creates a practical decision framework without relying on a perfect forecast.
05Size the position before taking it
Make position size the first line of risk control, not an afterthought.
Position size should reflect possible loss, volatility, liquidity, conviction and portfolio concentration—not emotion. A sound thesis can still become a poor trade when the position is too large. Sizing the exposure before entry helps keep one decision from dominating the portfolio.
Hold & exit
06A stop is one tool, not the whole plan
Support exit discipline with sizing, liquidity and contingency planning.
Stop-losses can impose discipline, but they cannot guarantee execution at a stated price during a gap or market dislocation. A complete risk plan also considers position size, instrument structure, liquidity, concentration and what to do when normal exit assumptions no longer hold.
07Manage the position as evidence changes
Add, trim, adjust or close when the thesis, risk or opportunity set changes.
The original time horizon is not a reason to ignore new information. We may add when the thesis strengthens and risk remains acceptable, trim as risk rises or objectives are reached, and close when the thesis breaks or the opportunity is no longer compelling. Each update becomes part of the position's decision history.
Stock methodologies
Three methodologies, one standard of evidence.
Nothing works all of the time and everything works some of the time, so the method follows the horizon. The longer the intended holding period, the more the fundamentals carry the decision and the less the chart is asked to do on its own.
Tactical positioning
Up to 10 sessions
Built on reversion: nothing outperforms or underperforms indefinitely, and even a falling knife bounces once it has hit the floor. Stops sit close to the entry, the trend is often faded rather than followed, and the exit can be set by price or by time.
Why this horizon
Reversion resolves quickly or not at all. Ten sessions is long enough for a stretched price to come back and short enough that the fundamental case has not changed underneath the trade. If the move has not arrived by then, the position is closed on time rather than held in hope. Intraday is excluded deliberately — acting on a recommendation should not require watching a screen.
Momentum investing
Weeks to months
The core of what we do, and where most of the large winners come from: companies leading their peer group and outperforming the market by a distance. Selection is by rejection — a ticker qualifies only once no plausible reason to reject it remains, and rejection is the far more common outcome.
Why this horizon
Leadership takes weeks to establish itself and tends to hold for months before it breaks. That is the window the position is held for: long enough for an established trend to pay, short enough that the position is still judged on the evidence that selected it rather than on a story about the next several years.
Turn-around themes
Months to years
The recovery from a base, and the fall from grace in a name that led the market until recently. Quantitative work on price and volume is weighed against the fundamental picture, and the resulting trade may be a reversal or the continuation of one already under way.
Why this horizon
A base takes time to form, and a name falling from leadership takes time to finish falling. These positions carry the longest horizon because what is being bought is a change in the business or the cycle rather than a move on the chart, and that is measured in quarters. The horizon stays provisional: a turn that stops developing is closed, not held out.
The base all three rest on
Entry timing is part of the decision.
The argument that markets cannot be timed belongs to funds that are mandated to stay invested and cannot hold cash beyond a threshold. Where the decision is discretionary, the entry is available to be got right, and a material part of the result comes from getting it right. Tactical, momentum and turn-around all depend on it: whatever the horizon, the timing of the entry is worked at, which is why every recommendation carries an actionable range rather than a single price.
Recorded for every position
Before entry
A rationale, time horizon, actionable range and defined risk.
While open
Material additions, trims, adjustments and changes to the thesis.
At exit
The closing decision and outcome retained with the position history.
See how the process becomes a recommendation.
Review the Stocks and Options services, the information included with each recommendation and the ongoing follow-through.
These principles describe our general research process. They do not guarantee performance and do not replace consideration of your objectives, financial situation and needs. Read the risk disclosure before acting on any market information.